2024 Pre-Roll Predictions

Here’s Where To Focus Your Pre-Roll Efforts in 2024, According to Last Year’s Trends

With the help of BDSA, a global cannabis data tracking and analytics firm, RollPros took a deep dive into the pre-roll industry of six markets last year:

Some of what we learned was surprising, and some was expected. One thing we weren’t anticipating—nearly all of what we found pointed to three major trends in pre-rolls begging to be capitalized on. And these trends applied whether the market was newer or more mature.

In this article, we’ll deep dive into the state of the cannabis market across six states in 2023, with a particular focus on pre-rolls and related subcategories. Read on for what you need to know for a successful pre-roll brand and/or product in 2024.

Declining markets like California and Massachusetts still show increased pre-roll sales

[We explored California’s market between July and September of 2023.] The largest cannabis market in the world is down overall, with a decline in revenue of four percent compared to April through June of 2023. (This is in line with previous data that shows California’s cannabis market dropped from $5.78 billion in revenue in 2021 to $5.31 billion in 2022.) But this decline is no bother to the state’s pre-roll market, which saw a two percent increase in revenue from Q2 to Q3 of 2023.

[Massachusetts’ overall market] decline wasn’t as steep as California’s, with a drop in revenue of two percent when comparing November 2022-January 2023 to February-April 2023. Like California, the Bay State saw a jump in pre-roll sales of two percent during the same time period.

Despite being on opposite sides of the country and having vastly different population sizes, the two markets are showing similar downturns and upticks likely because their markets are the same age. (Both states legalized marijuana for recreational use in November 2016.) Overall sales might be down, but the consumers of these middle-aged markets still find value in the convenience of pre-rolls and the opportunity they provide to try new brands and strains without committing to a larger purchase. 

% increase represent single quarter. Go to state-specific market reports for details

In booming markets like Michigan and Missouri, pre-rolls are making noise

The Great Lakes Region is on fire thanks to Michigan’s thriving market. Their overall market sales jumped 13 percent between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. Non-infused pre-rolls showed a small decline in that time period from $56.7 million in revenue to $55 million, but what’s interesting is infused pre-rolls stayed in step with the market’s upward trend. 40 percent of all pre-roll sales were infused, with this pre-roll subcategory clocking a 10 percent revenue increase between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023.

In the Midwest, Missouri’s market only recently opened for recreational sales in February of 2023, so their data still needs some time to mature. We compared December 2022-February 2023 to March-May 2023; essentially, the final three months of only medical sales compared to the first three months of medical and recreational sales. While their market needs to age a bit before we can make solid judgments, it’s safe to say their recreational consumers are very interested in pre-rolls. Pre-roll sales jumped from $11.3 million to $25.1 million once the market opened up. This jump makes sense for a new market. New consumers are curious to learn, and pre-rolls are an easy entry point—no large purchase commitment, no tools or skills required, and they can try a bunch of different strains to see what hits best for them.

Arizona’s pre-roll market is growing at a faster rate than its overall market

Arizona’s market isn’t quite as booming as Michigan’s or Missouri’s, but it did still experience one percent growth between June-August 2023 and September-November 2023. Pre-roll sales saw slightly more growth in the same timeframe, increasing by two percent despite seven pre-roll brands exiting the market.

This is one of the newer markets we studied, having opened up for recreational sales in November 2020. For the market to still be growing despite the pandemic frenzy having calmed down is impressive, but when compared to other markets like Michigan’s (legalized in 2018), it does seem to be growing at a slower rate than expected. Between this slow growth and more than half a dozen brands leaving the market, it’s safe to say competition in Arizona is fierce.

Oregon’s pre-roll market is feeling the pressure of oversaturation

Oregon is the oldest market we studied, having legalized recreational marijuana in November 2014. Their market has been sloping for a while now, with a revenue decrease of five percent between Q3 and Q4 of 2022. Pre-rolls, interestingly, are showing an even greater downturn, posting a 10 percent decrease in sales during that timeframe. Despite this decline, 18 new pre-roll brands and 312 new pre-roll products entered the market between Q3 and Q4 of 2022. No single brand has more than a four percent hold on pre-roll sales. All of this leads us to believe Oregon’s pre-roll market is oversaturated at this point.

Trend To Watch: Infused Pre-Rolls

Every market we studied, except for Oregon and Arizona, posted an increase in infused pre-roll sales, even if overall pre-roll sales were down.

Like Oregon, California’s market is known to be over-saturated. Still, the state saw a two percent increase in overall pre-roll sales. Infused pre-rolls were up only 0.8%, but they accounted for 60 percent of all pre-roll sales. California is a middle-aged market, so it doesn’t surprise us that infused pre-rolls own more than half of the pre-roll market share. Consumers in this state are more educated and experienced than in newer markets, so they’re looking for higher-end products that offer variety, like an infused pre-roll. They’ve made it past the “I don’t know what I like” phase of a new market and are comfortable enough to shop for specialty products.

Massachusetts’ infused pre-roll market is also outpacing sales of traditional pre-rolls. While non-infused pre-roll sales saw a two percent increase between November 2022-January 2023 and February-April 2023, infused pre-rolls increased by 3.4 percent. Unlike California, infused pre-rolls only own 12 percent of the pre-roll market share in Massachusetts; however, with infused pre-roll sales increasing at a greater rate than non-infused pre-roll sales, they’ll be the majority of pre-roll sales soon enough.

Michigan’s market is blazing, with infused pre-rolls now accounting for 40 percent of all pre-roll sales. They saw a 10.3 percent increase in infused pre-roll sales between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 even with two pre-roll brands exiting the market during that time, leaving plenty of room for a new infused pre-roll brand or product to come in and dominate.

Missouri saw a 7.1 percent increase in infused pre-roll sales once its market opened up from just medical to medical and recreational. Of course, they were going to see a jump there no matter what since the consumer base increased. What’s important to note is that they only had seven new pre-roll brands enter the market when recreational launched. That means, like Michigan, there’s plenty of room in Missouri for a pre-roll and/or infused pre-roll brand to take the lead.

Meanwhile, Arizona’s market is a little offbeat, with infused pre-roll sales dropping 2.3 percent and non-infused pre-roll sales increasing by two percent. This could be the market leveling off, though. As it stands, even with the decrease, infused pre-roll sales hold 62 percent of the pre-roll market share in Arizona. Most of the top-selling infused pre-roll brands are multi-state operators with name recognition and money (Jeeter and Stiiizy), which could explain why seven pre-roll brands left the market during the timeframe we studied. Competition may be intense, but we’re inclined to view it as an opportunity. Consumers might not be slowly losing interest in infused pre-rolls; they could just be slowly losing interest in Jeeter and Stiiizy’s take on infused pre-rolls. If other brands can stay strong, there may be an opportunity for a new top dog in the near future. 

Trend To Watch: Pre-Roll Multipacks

A pre-roll multipack adds to the convenience of a pre-roll. It can give the consumer the opportunity to try more than one strain per purchase, and it can offer them a cost-effective option to keep pre-rolls on hand as opposed to buying one at a time or dropping a lot of cash at once on several single pre-rolls. It’s no surprise, then, that several of the markets we studied saw major sales from pre-roll multipacks.

For example, 18 of the top 20 pre-roll products sold in Arizona between June-August 2023 and September-November 2023 were multipacks. 12 out of the top 20 pre-roll products in Oregon sold between Q3 and Q4 of 2022 were multipacks. In California, 19 out of the top 20 were multipacks.

Oddly, Michigan’s market only had six multipacks in their top 20 pre-roll products sold. However, each of them showed 100 percent or better growth between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, so we expect multipacks to take up more room in the state’s top 20 soon.

Massachusetts is the outlier here, with only eight multipacks in their top 20. Some of them are even declining in their sales, but we suspect this has to do with pricing.

Missouri had one 10-pack in their top 20 and a few 2-3 packs. Remember, they just went rec in February 2023, so their market needs time to mature before we draw any conclusions. But one thing’s for sure—judging by the trends in the other markets we studied, pre-roll multipacks will eventually be big sellers in Missouri, so if you’re in that market, now is the time to start developing your multipack product.

Trend To Watch: Quality Equals Consistency Equals Consumer Loyalty

There’s one thing that was consistent throughout all the markets we studied—when it comes to pre-rolls, consumers have a lot of options to choose from. And more often than not, new brands and products are entering the market quarter over quarter versus exiting. If you’re not providing a consistent, high-quality experience with every pre-roll you produce, your customer has no reason to give your brand a second chance. There are dozens to hundreds of other brands/products for them to choose from. (And keep in mind, this is all before interstate commerce opens up. Once that becomes a reality, your customer could have thousands of other brands to try.)

What does a consistent pre-roll experience mean to the consumer?

  • The pre-roll never runs or canoes
  • The pre-roll isn’t packed so tight it’s hard to hit or packed so loose that bits of flower get in their mouth
  • The pre-roll is always the same size
  • The pre-roll imparts a pleasant taste and effect that matches the description of the product

At RollPros, we know a thing or two about crafting a consistently sized, consistently packed pre-roll. Our pre-roll machine, the Blackbird, is the first and only automated pre-roll machine on the market that rolls pre-rolls like you would by hand as opposed to stuffing cones.

Stuffing a cone involves tamping flower down, almost guaranteeing an unevenly packed product with an inclination to canoe. Not to mention, cone-stuffing machines need flower to be extra dry (around 6-8% moisture content) and ground extra fine. Both of those requirements can degrade cannabinoid and terpene content and negatively impact a joint’s flavor and effects.

Rolling a pre-roll, if you remember from the good ol’ days, means the flower is evenly spread from filter to tip, discouraging any canoeing or hard pulls. And when you roll with the Blackbird, you can use moist flower (around 10-14% moisture content) that’s not ground nearly as fine as a cone-stuffing machine requires, maintaining better flavor and effect profiles.

The difference between a stuffed cone and a Blackbird rolled pre-roll is tangible and was even documented in our study of Oregon’s market. Two of Oregon’s top five brands, Rebel Spirit and Benson Arbor, used the Blackbird to roll their pre-rolls. Despite the market’s decline, both brands saw an increase in revenue, and Rebel Spirit was the only brand in the state with two products on the top 20 list.


When recreational marijuana first started opening up across the country, pre-rolls were considered filler products created to move trim and other unsellable flower and add a little cushion to a product lineup. As markets have aged and consumers have become more educated, this is no longer the case.

Pre-rolls are on the rise, and in particular, infused pre-rolls and pre-roll multipacks. Not every market is posting the same numbers per category, but one thing that is consistent no matter the state—consumers are here for a consistent, quality pre-roll experience. And they have no need to give a brand or product a second chance if it doesn’t deliver the first time.

Make sure your pre-roll makes a memorable first impression with the RollPros Blackbird. Contact us today.